In short: Jones (3-7) at Alice (9-0), August 28, 2026 (high school football). Final: Alice 35, Jones 13. The full report has the projection, unit grades, storylines, pregame notes, Big Game Watch, series history, season stats and both rosters.

JONES

SCOREPIRATE MATCHUP REPORT ·

JONES (AWAY) AT ALICE (HOME)

JONES 11.2  —  42.1 ALICE

ALICE 93.5% FAVORITES

ALICE

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UNIT INDEX — GRADE (YDS VS AVG)

TEAM	PASS O	RUSH O	PASS D	RUSH D
JONES	26.4 (-63.2)	24.4 (-69.4)	39.3 (+11.2)	44.8 (+7.0)
ALICE	19.6 (-78.2)	96.6 (+190.6)	93.3 (-86.2)	94.9 (-125.0)

JONES AT ALICE

ADVANCED STATS PREVIEW · 2026 SEASON

TIMEFRAME This season (2026)Last 2 years (2025–26)Last 4 years (2023–26)Last 6 years (2021–26)Last 8 years (2019–26)Last 10 years (2017–26)RANKS VS SECTION LEAGUE · 107 teams DOWNLOAD CARD AS PDFDOWNLOAD AS JPEG

WIN PROB

6.5%

PROJ PTS

11.2

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WIN PROB

93.5%

PROJ PTS

42.1

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Averages, ranks and records above cover the selected window; SP STRENGTH INDEX and the UNIT/RUSH/PASS INDEX rows are full-library ratings and do not change with it.

Rank chips: 1 = best in the pool; blue strong, red weak. Yardage and efficiency use games with a full box score on file; points and turnovers use every played game. Unit Index = opponent-adjusted 0-100 league percentile.

PROJECTION COMPONENTS

COMPONENT	POINTS	WEIGHT	CONTRIBUTION
Strength	-17.91	23%	-4.10
Common Opponents	-2.09	23%	-0.48
Efficiency	-11.17	20%	-2.18
Own Margin	-29.98	18%	-5.53
Head To Head	-20.45	16%	-3.32
Garbage Time Margin	--	0%	+0.00
EPA Efficiency	--	0%	+0.00

What if he’s out?

Mark players out to re-project this game. Each value is how much of the margin that player is worth, from this season's data (his share of his team's win shares). Estimates — your selections change only your view.

PROJECTED TEAM YARDAGE

CATEGORY	TEAM	PROJECTED
Passing	JONES	59.4
Passing	ALICE	77.2
Rushing	JONES	49.1
Rushing	ALICE	239.2
Total	JONES	108.5
Total	ALICE	316.4

PROJECTED BOX SCORE

JONES — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
JADEN WHEELER	4.1/9.8	41.3%	45.4	4.6	0.3	0.9	73.7
JORDAN GARCIA	1.7/4.7	36.6%	14.0	3.0	0.2	0.4	58.3
TOTALS	5.8/14.5	39.8%	59.4	4.1	0.5	1.3	68.7

JONES — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
KD CANO	14.8	26.9	1.8	0.0
GAVIN GARZA	8.5	13.7	1.6	0.1
D'ANDRE THOMAS	3.6	8.4	2.4	0.0
TOTALS	26.9	49.1	1.8	0.2

JONES — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
JAYLEN ROBINSON	1.8	29.8	16.7	0.3
JAYCE FOSTER	1.6	29.6	18.0	0.2
TOTALS	3.4	59.4	17.3	0.5

ALICE — PASSING
PLAYER	C/ATT	COMP %	YDS	YPA	TD	INT	QBR
SEBASTIAN WOLF FLORES	4.5/7.9	56.9%	60.6	7.7	1.4	0.2	173.9
SEBASTIAN WOLF FLORES	1.0/2.5	40.4%	16.6	6.5	0.5	0.1	151.0
TOTALS	5.5/10.4	52.8%	77.2	7.4	1.9	0.3	168.3

ALICE — RUSHING
PLAYER	CAR	YDS	YPC	TD
RYDER SALAIZ	18.0	137.4	7.6	2.1
LANDON GUERRA	10.1	64.0	6.3	0.8
ROEL GONZALEZ III	7.9	37.7	4.8	0.6
TOTALS	36.0	239.2	6.6	3.6

ALICE — RECEIVING
PLAYER	REC	YDS	YPC	TD
RYDER SALAIZ	1.9	31.7	16.5	0.5
ALVARO TUNCHEZ	1.3	23.1	18.0	0.5
LANDON GUERRA	1.2	22.4	18.0	1.1
TOTALS	4.4	77.2	17.4	2.1

PREGAME NOTES

The next meeting brings together Jones (3-7 this season) and Alice (9-0). The SP Strength Index has Jones at #853 and Alice at #437 of 1252 in the TX section. Alice leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on August 28, 2026, Alice pulled away 35-13.

The projection engine makes Alice a 94% favorite, projecting a 42-11 final in favor of the Coyotes, off the full five-component blend of both teams' multi-season logs.

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Jones' rushing. The Trojans averaged 0.4 yards per carry (13 yards on 32 rushes) against Alice on 8/28, well below their 4.6 mark in every other game this season. Jones lost the game 35-13. A rushing number closer to Jones' norm would go a long way toward flipping the result this time.

Jones' passing game looks better on paper, but one afternoon is doing a lot of the work. Jones averaged 6.2 yards per pass attempt (765 yards on 123 attempts) on the season, #795 in section, but that number is boosted by a 162-yard game on 8 attempts against KING on 10/9. In all other games, Jones is at 5.2 yards per pass attempt (603 yards on 115 attempts), a figure that would rank #931 in section. Context matters here: KING's pass defense ranks among the weakest in section (10.6 yards per attempt, #1054 of 1234), so that game says more about the opponent than about the unit itself. Against Alice, Jones draws one of the better pass defenses (5.9 yards per attempt, #118), so expect something closer to the 5.2 version.

The first meeting between these two hinged on a single stat: Alice's run defense. The Coyotes allowed 0.4 yards per carry (13 yards on 32 rushes) against Jones on 8/28, well below their 2.9 mark in every other game this season. Alice won the game 35-13. Repeating that kind of run defense edge would put Alice in a strong position to do it again.

Alice allowed 1.7 yards per carry (150 yards on 90 rushes) over its first 4 games (4-0), #9 in section during that period. Few teams started faster in this department, and few have cooled off as sharply since. In the 5 games since that hot start (5-0), the Coyotes have allowed 3.3 yards per carry (291 yards on 88 rushes), a 98% rise, #106 in section during that stretch. The schedule doesn't excuse it: the last 5 opponents have been softer, averaging 4.7 yards per carry, a #840 rushing attack in section on the season, against 5.3 yards per carry, #671 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (4.7 yards per carry), Alice held those rushing attacks 29% below their usual yards per carry. By that measure, the early pace looks more like the outlier than the recent one. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1124 in section, well below the first 4 (#928), which makes the dip harder to excuse. On the season, Alice ranks #13 in section in run defense. Jones' ground game, #935 of 1075 (4.1 yards per carry), could be the get-right matchup Alice needs.

Something changed for Jones' offense after its first 5 games. The Trojans averaged 3.6 yards per play (728 yards on 202 snaps) over their first 5 games (1-4), #1002 in section over that period. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), Jones has averaged 6.2 yards per play (1,037 yards on 166 snaps), a 73% rise, #610 in section over that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jones' last 5 opponents have averaged 7.6 yards per play, a #838 defense in section on the season, against 5.7 yards per play, #240 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.6 yards per play), Jones gained 18% less per snap than those defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. On the season, the Trojans rank #955 in section in yards per play. That form gets a real test against Alice, whose defense ranks #22 in section (3.9 yards per play).

One of Alice's most reliable areas lately has been its ground game. The Coyotes averaged 6.3 yards per carry (1,186 yards on 188 rushes) over their first 4 games (4-0), #411 in section over that span. In the 5 games since that slow start (5-0), Alice has averaged 11.2 yards per carry (2,115 yards on 189 rushes), a 77% rise, #25 in section in that timeframe. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Alice's last 5 opponents have averaged 7.8 yards per carry, a #1029 run defense in section on the season, against 6.4 yards per carry, #712 for the first 4. Measured against those opponents' norms (7.8 yards per carry), Alice ran for 43% more per carry than those run defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 5 opponents average a rating that would rank #1124 in section, well below the first 4 (#928), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. On the season, the Coyotes rank #78 in section in rushing. Jones' run defense sits in the middle of the pack, #446 in section (5.5 yards per carry).

BIG GAME WATCH

Players positioned for an outsized game because of this opponent: a player's share of his team's win shares, weighted by the tendencies of the team across from him. Only matchup-driven picks are shown.

Jones

Gavin GarzaLB117 tackles and 4 TFLAlice runs on 95% of its snaps, #13 of 950 in section; 117 tackles and 4 TFL make him the one who has to clean it up

Kaleb CruzDL6 sacks and 11 TFLAlice runs on 95% of its snaps, #13 of 950 in section; 6 sacks and 11 TFL put him at the point of attack

Alice

Nothing about this opponent moves one player ahead of the rest.

MILESTONE WATCH

Jones

• Kaleb Cruz needs 2 tackles for 100 (averaging 9.8 a game)
• Gavin Garza needs 8 tackles for 125 (averaging 11.7 a game)
• Abdul Ashfaq needs 7 tackles for 75 (averaging 6.8 a game)

Alice

• David Lopez needs 3 tackles for 50 (averaging 6.7 a game)
• Roel Gonzalez Iii needs 77 rushing yards for 500 (averaging 70.5 a game)

STORYLINES

The battle on the ground has the potential to swing this matchup, with the recent returns favoring Jones. Jones averaged 2.6 yards per carry (346 yards on 131 rushes) over its first 5 games (1-4), #1011 in section in that timeframe. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Trojans have averaged 5.7 yards per carry (654 yards on 114 rushes), a 117% rise, #526 in section in that window. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jones' last 5 opponents have averaged 6.3 yards per carry, a #690 run defense in section on the season, against 4.9 yards per carry, #281 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (6.3 yards per carry), Jones ran for 8% less per carry than those run defenses usually allow. So the improvement is real, but it still trails what those opponents usually give up. Conversely, Alice's run defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Coyotes have allowed 3.3 yards per carry (291 yards on 88 rushes) over their last 5 games (5-0), #106 in section during that time. Those games came against some of the weaker rushing attacks in section (4.7 yards per carry on the season, which would rank #840). Against those norms, Alice held those rushing attacks 29% below their usual yards per carry. Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #1124 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Jones' surging ground game meets one of section's better units in Alice's.

If there's one number to watch in this matchup, it's Jones' giveaways. Jones committed 2.6 giveaways per game over its first 5 games (1-4), #1155 in section through those games. In the 5 games since that slow start (2-3), the Trojans have committed 0.2 giveaways per game, a 92% drop, #65 in section through that stretch. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Jones' last 5 opponents have averaged 1.3 per game, a #557 defense in section on the season, against 1.8 per game, #244 for the first 5. Measured against those opponents' norms (1.3 per game), Jones turned it over 84% less than those defenses usually force. Conversely, Alice's defense has been one of section's better units in recent weeks. The Coyotes have forced 1.6 takeaways per game over their last 5 games (5-0), #293 in section over that stretch. Those games came against some of the weaker offenses in section (1.6 per game on the season, which would rank #899). Overall, those opponents average an SP Strength Index rating that would rank #1124 in section, a lower level of competition. Something has to give when Jones' surging ball security meets one of section's better units in Alice's.

The Alice offense of late is barely reminiscent of the one that began the season. Alice averaged 31.3 points per game over its first 3 games (3-0), #503 in section within that period. In the 6 games since that slow start (6-0), the Coyotes have averaged 58.5 points per game, an 87% rise, #21 in section across those games. The schedule deserves some of the credit: Alice's last 6 opponents have averaged 37.8 points per game, a #956 scoring defense in section on the season, against 30.0 points per game, #686 for the first 3. Measured against those opponents' norms (37.8 points per game), Alice scored 55% more than those defenses usually allow. The level of competition matters too: in ScorePirate's SP Strength Index, the last 6 opponents average a rating that would rank #1111 in section, well below the first 3 (#891), so the recent production comes against lower-level teams overall. Meanwhile, Jones' defense has been middle of the pack in recent weeks. The Trojans have allowed 32.2 points per game over their last 6 games (2-4), #720 in section during those games. Those games came against a middle-of-the-pack set of offenses in section (27.0 points per game on the season, which would rank #710). Against those norms, Jones allowed 19% more than those offenses usually score. Jones offers Alice a fair measuring stick for whether the trend is real. Alice is 7-0 this season when it scores 32 or more, and 2-0 when it doesn't.

• an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only)

• Club The last time Alice went a game throwing for 200+ yards was November 24, 2023 against Calhoun (L, 14-27). Since then Alice has gone 31 straight games being held under 200 passing yards, a school-record 31 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Jones has gone 10 straight games allowing 100+ rushing yards (August 28, 2026 through November 5, 2026), going 3-7 over that stretch, a school-record 10 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Alice went a game allowing 8.0+ yards per attempt was November 24, 2023 against Calhoun (L, 14-27). Since then Alice has gone 31 straight games holding the opponent under 8.0 yards per attempt, a school-record 31 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Alice has won 9 straight, and a win would make it 10 in a row -- something they have not done in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Jones has gone 6 straight games committing fewer than 2 turnovers (September 25, 2026 through November 5, 2026), going 2-4 over that stretch, a school-record 6 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Alice went a game allowing 6.0+ yards per play was November 24, 2023 against Calhoun (L, 14-27). Since then Alice has gone 31 straight games holding the opponent under 6.0 yards per play, a school-record 31 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Jones has gone 4 straight games allowing 5.0+ yards per carry (October 9, 2026 through November 5, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Alice is 9-0 entering play against Jones and is looking to start 10-0 for the first time in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club The last time Alice went a game being held under 100 rushing yards was November 22, 2024 against Victoria West (L, 13-63). Since then Alice has gone 19 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, a school-record 19 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Jones has gone 4 straight games allowing 6.0+ yards per play (October 9, 2026 through November 5, 2026), going 1-3 over that stretch, a school-record 4 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Club Alice has gone 9 straight games committing fewer than 3 turnovers (August 28, 2026 through November 6, 2026), going 9-0 over that stretch, a school-record 9 straight in the 5 seasons on record.

• Series Alice leads the all-time series with Jones 1-0, across 1 meetings dating to 2026.

• Player Kaleb Cruz has 4 sacks over his last 4 games (1.0 a game, October 9, 2026 through November 5, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.

• Club Alice is 21-0 all time when scoring 40+ points in the games on file (21 such games).

• Player Gavin Garza has 63 tackles over his last 6 games (10.5 a game, September 25, 2026 through November 5, 2026) -- his most in a 6-game stretch since the 63 he had from October 17, 2025 through September 18, 2026.

• Club Alice has scored 173 points over its last 3 games (57.7 a game, October 16, 2026 through November 6, 2026) -- its most in a 3-game stretch since the 178 from September 18, 2026 through October 9, 2026.

• Player Jayce Foster has 34 tackles over his last 3 games (11.3 a game, October 16, 2026 through November 5, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 39 he had from September 25, 2026 through October 9, 2026.

• Player Landon Guerra has 450 rushing yards over his last 4 games (112.5 a game, September 25, 2026 through November 6, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.

• Player Kaleb Cruz has 47 tackles over his last 5 games (9.4 a game, October 2, 2026 through November 5, 2026) -- his most in a 5-game stretch since the 51 he had from August 28, 2026 through September 25, 2026.

• Player Landon Guerra has 6 rushing touchdowns over his last 4 games (1.5 a game, September 25, 2026 through November 6, 2026) -- his most in a 4-game stretch on record.

• Player Roel Gonzalez Iii has gone 3 straight games running for a touchdown, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Ryder Salaiz has gone 2 straight games rushing for 100+ yards, the longest such streak of his career.

• Player Ryder Salaiz has gone 2 straight games running for a touchdown, the 2nd-longest such streak of his career. He also had a career-best streak of 3 straight games running for a touchdown, during the 2026 season.

• Player Cezar Caballero has 25 tackles over his last 3 games (8.3 a game, October 9, 2026 through October 23, 2026) -- his most in a 3-game stretch since the 25 he had from August 28, 2026 through September 11, 2026.

• ALI's offense has averaged 1.0 giveaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 0.3 giveaways per game. (+200%)

• ALI's offense has exceeded 100 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-11/06/2026), going 9-0 over that stretch.

• ALI's offense has exceeded 150 rush yds in 9 straight games (08/28/2026-11/06/2026), going 9-0 over that stretch.

• JON's offense has averaged 0.2 giveaways per game over their last 5 games. Their 10-game average is 1.4 giveaways per game. (-86%)

• JON's defense has averaged 24.7 pass yards per game over their last 3 games. Their 10-game average is 127.9 pass yards per game. (-81%)

• ALI's offense has exceeded 5.0 YPC in 8 straight games (09/03/2026-11/06/2026), going 8-0 over that stretch.

• ALI's offense has exceeded 6.0 YPP in 7 straight games (09/11/2026-11/06/2026), going 7-0 over that stretch.

• ALI's offense has exceeded 7.0 YPP in 7 straight games (09/11/2026-11/06/2026), going 7-0 over that stretch.

• ALI's defense has averaged 0.7 takeaways per game over their last 3 games. Their 9-game average is 2.1 takeaways per game. (-68%)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 2)

(full explanation: Appendix, Note 3)

JON: 1 of 10 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .999 across those game(s).

ALI: 1 of 9 game(s) came against a tracked opponent; that opponent's own win% averaged .300 across those game(s).

(of 15 combinations tried per team -- a combination is only shown when at least 4 real games on file satisfy both conditions at once)

--- JON ---

--- ALI ---

The next meeting brings together Jones (3-7 this season) and Alice (9-0). The SP Strength Index has Jones at #853 and Alice at #437 of 1252 in the TX section. Alice leads the recent series 1-0 over the last 1 meetings. In the most recent meeting, on August 28, 2026, Alice pulled away 35-13.

Having dropped 4 of its last 7 entering play, Jones' ball security has been the team's calling card (committed no more than one giveaway in 5 straight games, 2-3 in that stretch). Last time out, though, the Trojans fell to Tuloso-Midway 31-20. Unbeaten in its last 7 entering play, Alice's rushing offense has been the team's calling card (eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, 5-0 in that stretch). That carried into last time out, the Coyotes handling Zapata 84-6.

The matchup within the matchup pairs Jones' pass rush with Alice's pass protection. Jones' pass rush has been playing at a high level over the Trojans' last 10 games. Despite recording 3+ sacks in only 2 of the 10 games, the defense has averaged 1.4 sacks per game (including a high of 6 in that span vs. King). That is 180% above the Trojans' baseline of 0.5 per game over the 6 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Trojans have gone 3-7 in that stretch. They'll face a stiff test when the two meet. Alice's pass protection has been playing at a high level over the Coyotes' last 5 games. The offensive line has kept the quarterback clean in 3 of the 5 games while averaging 0.3 sacks allowed per game (including a low of 0 in that span vs. Palmview). That is 77% below the Coyotes' baseline of 1.3 per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Coyotes have gone 5-0 in that stretch.

WEAKNESS VS. STRENGTH — Jones has an uncomfortable assignment when the two meet. Jones' rush defense has been a real vulnerability over the Trojans' last 5 games. The defense has conceded 100+ rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 245.0 rushing yards allowed per game (including a high of 379 in that span vs. Calallen). That is 15% above the Trojans' baseline of 212.3 yards per game over the 7 games prior — a clear jump; the Trojans have gone 2-3 in that stretch. Across the line, Alice's rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Coyotes' last 5 games. The ground game has eclipsed 200 rushing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 423.0 rushing yards per game (including a high of 470 in that span vs. Edinburg North). That is 43% above the Coyotes' baseline of 296.5 yards per game over the 4 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Coyotes have gone 5-0 in that stretch.

ONE-SIDED — Jones' passing attack has been a real vulnerability over the Trojans' last 5 games. The offense has failed to reach 200 passing yards in 5 straight games, averaging 82.8 passing yards per game (including a low of 31 in that span vs. Miller). That is 37% below the Trojans' baseline of 132.4 yards per game over the 5 games prior — a dramatic drop; the Trojans have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Alice. Alice has averaged 120.8 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Jones' rushing offense has been playing at a high level over the Trojans' last 7 games. Despite eclipsing 200 rushing yards in only 1 of the 7 games, the ground game has averaged 141.0 rushing yards per game (including a high of 308 in that span vs. King). That is 50% above the Trojans' baseline of 94.3 yards per game over the 3 games prior — a dramatic jump; the Trojans have gone 2-5 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Alice. Alice has averaged 114.9 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

ONE-SIDED — Jones' pass defense has been playing at a high level over the Trojans' last 5 games. The defense has held its opponents under 200 passing yards in 4 of the 5 games while averaging 111.4 passing yards allowed per game (including a low of 19 in that span vs. Tuloso-Midway). That is 21% below the Trojans' baseline of 141.3 yards per game over the 7 games prior — a clear drop; the Trojans have gone 2-3 in that stretch. When the two meet, that trend meets Alice. Alice has averaged 99.9 yards per game on the other side of that matchup across its games on file.

JONES

• JONES has allowed 200+ rushing in 3 straight games (10/16/26–11/5/26). It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• JONES has allowed 30+ in 4 straight games (10/9/26–11/5/26). It has not allowed 30+ in 5 straight since 10/11/24–9/5/25 (2025).

• JONES has lost 3 straight (10/16/26–11/5/26). It has not lost 4 straight since 9/19/25–9/10/26 (2026). It has reached 4 straight 2 times in the last 4 years and has lost a high of 10 straight (2026) in that span.

ALICE

• ALICE has scored 30+ in 6 straight games (9/18/26–11/6/26). It has not reached 7 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• ALICE has won 9 straight (8/28/26–11/6/26). It has not reached 10 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• ALICE has rushed for 200+ in 8 straight games (9/3/26–11/6/26). It has not reached 9 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

• ALICE has been held under 100 passing in 3 straight games (10/16/26–11/6/26). Earlier games have no box score on file, so the run may be longer. It has not reached 4 straight in the last 4 years of games on file (2023-present).

Each pair of rows above is tinted by the gap between the two teams' win% in that scenario, judged for the HOME team (the bottom row):

GRAY = negligible gap (.000-.050)

PURPLE = solid gap (.051-.150)

GREEN = big gap (.151+), favoring the home team

RED = big gap (.151+), against the home team

JON OFFENSE vs ALI DEFENSE

ALI OFFENSE vs JON DEFENSE

Full-length explanations and full-size data exports for the shortened notes and relocated tables referenced throughout this report, numbered in the order their pointers appear above.

Explanatory Notes

Note 1 -- GAME PROJECTION -- FULL DETAIL (report pages 1-2)

Library-native projection: computed directly from the game library (slate_projection.SlateEngine), not the Excel workbook engine. This section does not yet include: an outside Strength Index cross-check (computer/CCCAA rankings -- workbook-only).

Note 2 -- MOST IMPORTANT NUMBERS -- how a number is scored

Every split this report computes is scored on how strong the number is and how much it sets this team apart from its opponent and the rest of the field, and the top 5 per team are listed. A condition needs at least 8 occurrences to count.

Note 3 -- OPPONENT STRENGTH (best-effort) -- why this is often empty

Only meaningful for a game against an opponent who is ALSO a tracked team on this workbook -- with just a couple of teams tracked, that's rare (mainly a direct matchup between them, if this run covers both); every other opponent has no win% on file here at all, so most of a team's schedule simply has no strength data to show.

Full Data Exports

Data Export 1 -- MATCHUP CONFLICTS — TAB-SEPARATED (13 columns)

Data Export 2 -- TRENDS — TAB-SEPARATED (10 columns)